The 2024 presidential election is a little more than one hundred calendar days away from occurring. Thus far, the contest appears to be a closely fought battle between the incumbent 46th President Joe Biden, and the former 45th president Donald Trump. Most polls forecast a tight race with both candidates separated by a mere handful of points. According to a recent report that explains the results of a Five Thirty-Eight study, Joe Biden has a 53% chance of winning the race, with Donald Trump possessing only a 46% chance. This report, initially published in early July, was updated on July 16th. The report claims that Biden would win in a head-to-head matchup with Trump 534 times out of 1,000, while Trump would win in only 462 scenarios. The numbers and data related to the report project Biden with a three-point win nationally.
Despite the report by Five Thirty-Eight, the Democratic incumbent is vulnerable. Biden is facing strong headwinds from within his party, with many top Democrats calling for the president to step aside. Biden performed poorly on June 27th during the first Presidential debate, appearing incoherent and struggling mightily to respond to questions. In another recent report, two-thirds of Democrats polled now wish for Biden to step aside. Despite this, Biden remains the party torchbearer in the present moment, with the Democratic national convention set for August 22nd. The Democratic party is in turmoil; the only logical replacement for Biden would be his Vice President, Kamala Harris. Only time will tell what occurs- if Biden is removed, it must occur before he is solidified as the party nominee at the convention on August 22nd.
At the Republican National Convention (now occurring in Milwaukee), Alvin Bragg, the New York City District Attorney for Manhattan, was slammed by conservatives. Bragg ran on an anti-Trump platform, and many conservatives have alleged he is “soft on crime” while targeting Trump for political reasons.
