New Election Data Spells Doom For Democrats

( A recent analysis of the 2022 primaries from the Washington Post found that more Republicans than Democrats participated in this year’s primary elections, leading some to conclude voter enthusiasm is higher among GOP voters.

Of the total votes cast in primaries this year, 52 percent were in Republican races while only 48 percent were in Democrat races. Since 2006, the party receiving more primary participation goes on to gain seats in the general election.

The analysis also found that even after the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, Republicans continued to lead in primary turnout, despite claims that overturning Roe would increase voter enthusiasm among Democrats.

According to the analysis, Republicans are likely to gain between 15 and 30 seats in the House.

In 2010, when Republican primary turnout was 12 points higher than Democrats, the GOP gained 63 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.

Most pollsters believe Democrats will retain the majority in the Senate in this year’s midterms. However, Senate polling has been largely unreliable since 2014, with pollsters oversampling Democrats by as much as 5 points.

The analysis also found that Republicans had a stark turnout advantage in races where former President Donald Trump endorsed a candidate.

In Ohio, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, the Trump-endorsed Senate candidates ultimately won highly contested primaries while the Democrat candidates in those states won their primaries more easily. States with Trump-endorsed candidates saw a 14-point advantage in Republican turnout compared to Democrats. In states without Trump-endorsed candidates, Democrats held a 2-point advantage.

Other metrics that indicate Republicans are on good footing heading into November include President Biden’s low approval rating and the generic congressional vote polls which largely favor Republicans.