Kamala Harris is the bookmakers’ favorite to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate. Polymarket, a market prediction platform, says confidence that Biden will be the Democratic candidate has dropped from 90% to just 49%, primarily prompted by public statements from Democrats calling on the President to step down. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris’s odds have risen from just 1% to 35%.
Similarly, the PredictIt organization states that Biden is down even further by their estimates, to 40%, putting him on a par with Kamala Harris. PredictIt figures furthermore reveal that Harris has jumped ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom and climbed 14% to 40% in two days.
A poll of voters in early July also revealed bad news for President Biden and found that three-quarters of Democrat supporters think the party has a better chance of defeating Donald Trump if Biden concedes to another candidate.
The same poll found Biden trailing Mr. Trump by 49% to 43%, but Harris faring better at 45%. Among independents, 43% would back Harris against Trump, but only 34% would vote for Biden. Harris furthermore beat Gavin Newsom, who polled with 43% against Donald Trump.
In two additional surveys published on July 16, the Vice President likewise outperformed President Biden. In one poll, she also defeated Donald Trump by 1%. Data shows that Harris has more support than Biden among black, young, and female voters, all groups that analysts say will be crucial for Democrats in November.
Meanwhile, at the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NCAAP) national convention, President Biden said Harris “could be the next President of the United States.” The President also told reporters he is willing to hand power to Harris should his health necessitate it. Reports furthermore indicate that Biden is increasingly receptive to the idea of stepping aside for Harris as insiders reveal he has asked aides and colleagues if they believe she would make a competent President.
