Three years after seizing power in Afghanistan, the Taliban has gained diplomatic traction with major powers like Russia and China, while western nations remain critical but increasingly engaged—signaling a complex shift in global geopolitics that could turn the country into a new battleground for international influence.
At a Glance
- The Taliban regime has been in power for three years, with Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada centralizing control while over 90% of Afghans live in poverty
- Russia removed the Taliban from its terrorist list and plans to appoint ambassadors, while China accepted a Taliban-appointed ambassador in January 2024
- Regional powers including India and Uzbekistan are increasing engagement with the Taliban despite human rights concerns
- Afghanistan’s economy has stabilized but remains stagnant with reduced international aid and significant humanitarian needs
- The Taliban’s approach to terrorism focuses on preventing attacks abroad while allowing the presence of foreign fighters within Afghanistan
Taliban’s Growing Diplomatic Recognition
The Taliban’s third year in power has seen a remarkable shift in international engagement despite no formal recognition from any government. Russia recently removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations and plans to establish formal diplomatic missions with ambassadors in both Kabul and Moscow. China took a significant step by accepting a Taliban-appointed ambassador in January 2024 and has begun discussions about potential infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative.
According to this person:
Taliban victory is a "myth".
"America got tired, realized Afghanistan was impossible to modernize and left".
Taliban "won by default because their country was impossible to modernize".
"So cope"Imagine someone with an inferiority complex projecting… pic.twitter.com/SVKXsxKCTJ
— Ismailoğlu Pasha (@IsmailogluF) February 14, 2024
India and Uzbekistan have also engaged in diplomatic talks with the Taliban, focusing on establishing political and trade links including a proposed trans-Afghan rail corridor. Pakistan, once considered the Taliban’s closest ally, now expresses frustration over the regime’s refusal to act against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants operating from Afghan territory, leading to increased deportation of Afghan refugees and rising border tensions.
Economic Interests Driving Major Power Engagement
Russia’s growing relationship with the Taliban extends beyond diplomacy into economic interests, particularly in Afghanistan’s mining and energy sectors. The two parties are expected to sign a contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply, though security concerns and limited route capacity may affect implementation. China similarly views Afghanistan through an economic lens, eyeing the country’s estimated $1 trillion in untapped mineral resources including copper, lithium, and rare earth elements critical for high-tech manufacturing.
These economic motivations are balanced against security concerns. Both Russia and China seek Taliban cooperation in countering the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP), which threatens their regional interests. The Taliban has effectively suppressed ISKP within Afghanistan but continues to harbor other foreign militant groups, creating a complex security dynamic that major powers must navigate as they deepen their engagement.
Internal Challenges Under Taliban Rule
While gaining international traction, the Taliban faces significant internal challenges. The regime remains exclusionary, favoring southern Pashtun Talibs while marginalizing other ethnic groups. Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada has centralized power and created parallel governance institutions that undermine traditional state structures. Human rights, particularly women’s rights, have been severely restricted, with girls banned from secondary education and women increasingly excluded from public life.
Afghanistan’s economy has stabilized at a low level but remains stagnant. The Taliban has reduced corruption, boosting tax revenue, but their ban on opium poppy cultivation has severely impacted rural livelihoods. Over 90% of Afghans live in poverty, and humanitarian needs remain acute while international aid has decreased. These internal challenges create vulnerabilities that foreign powers may exploit as they compete for influence.
Western Response and Future Implications
Western nations maintain a critical stance toward the Taliban, focusing on human rights abuses, but have gradually increased engagement. The United Kingdom and Germany pursue limited diplomatic contact, while the United States has held direct talks on issues of mutual concern. The U.S. strategy recommends maintaining low-level engagement focused on counterterrorism cooperation and supporting human rights initiatives, recognizing that regime collapse or civil war would likely worsen security threats.
The competing interests of global and regional powers create a dangerous potential for Afghanistan to become a battleground for international rivalries. As Russia, China, India, and western nations pursue their strategic objectives in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s diplomatic outreach may inadvertently draw the country into broader geopolitical conflicts. This dynamic threatens to undermine Afghanistan’s sovereignty and could lead to renewed instability in a region that has already endured decades of foreign intervention and conflict.
