According to election statistics, the number of Democrats registering to vote has decreased in three key battleground states since the end of 2020, just before a rematch between Trump and Biden in November 2024.
Despite having three of the most closely contested presidential races in the past cycle, the number of registered Democrats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada has decreased since late 2020, based on official state statistics. In terms of party registration, Democrats are still ahead of Republicans, although the gaps are far narrower now than they were before.
State election data shows 336,269 registered Pennsylvanians have left the Democrat Party since November 2020. After holding a lead of 685,818 voters, Democrats now have less than 400,000 advantage over Republicans in voter registration.
State election data suggests that from December 2020 to April 2024, 212,084 Democrats in North Carolina deserted the party.
The Republican Party and Democrats gap has shrunk to 170,943 voters from 373,622 in the past.
State election data shows that 27,757 fewer registered voters have gone to Democrats in Nevada since December 2020. The party’s margin over Republicans has shrunk to 55,116 votes, down from 96,875 in 2020.
Philadelphia County has a long history of supporting Democrat candidates and winning elections in Pennsylvania, so due to the recent decline in voter participation, there is cause for worry about the party’s base of support. Strategists on the left are concerned Biden’s prospects in 2024 might be hurt by a low attendance.
Since Mitch McConnell’s 1984 election to the Senate, when Democrats comprised the majority of the state’s congressional delegation, the percentage of registered Democrats in Kentucky has dropped below 50%.
All three states were considered close contests for the presidency last year, with less than 200,000 people casting ballots. While Trump captured North Carolina with a margin of 1.3 points, Biden won Nevada and Pennsylvania with margins of 2.4 and 1.2 points, respectively.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump has a 4.6-point lead in North Carolina and a 3.2-point advantage over Biden in Nevada. Pennsylvania is the lone battleground state where Biden has a slight lead, with a margin of barely 0.1 percentage points.
