According to a poll released by Data for Progress on Wednesday, a presidential campaign by the third-party organization No Labels could potentially hinder President Joe Biden’s reelection chances and create an opportunity for former President Donald Trump to return to the White House.
No Labels, a centrist organization, plans to raise $70 million using it for a hybrid-independent Democrat-Republican to voters in the 2024 election.
They have already qualified for the ballot in five states and anticipate being on the ballot in 20 states by the end of the year.
The poll, conducted from May 25 to June 5 among 1,625 likely voters, examined voter support for Larry Hogan, the former Republican governor of Maryland, who is considered a potential candidate for the No Labels ticket.
The poll results show that if Hogan is not on the 2024 ballot, Joe Biden would have a two-point lead over Donald Trump. However, with Hogan’s inclusion, Biden and Trump are evenly split at 44% each.
Data for Progress executive director Danielle Deiseroth emphasized that their polling suggests a No Labels candidate would likely disrupt the election in favor of Trump and enable right-wing extremism to gain traction.
Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist for No Labels, commented that it is premature to speculate on the election outcome since it is still 17 months away.
Clancy further noted that the one thing everyone can agree on is that very few people desire the election choices the major political parties offer.
The margin of error for the poll is +/-2 percentage points.
A potential rematch between Biden and Trump would be a consequential presidential race.
On one side, we have a sitting president.
In contrast, on the other side, a former president has faced two indictments and impeachments and is suspected of inciting an insurrection.
This former president has a record of propagating doubts about the 2020 election.
Early polls in the crowded Republican primary indicate he enjoys a significant lead, making this scenario plausible.
Considering the historical performance of third-party candidates in presidential elections, it’s unlikely that a No Labels candidate would make a significant impact.
To do so, they would have to outperform past independent candidates such as Ross Perot and, in the process, draw support away from either Trump, Biden or any other primary winner.
No Labels’ projection of securing 270 Electoral College votes relies heavily on winning states Biden carried in 2020.
However, there are concerns regarding No Labels’ commitment to withdrawing from the 2024 election if Donald Trump fails to secure the Republican Party’s nomination.
This potential withdrawal raises doubts about the organization’s objective of combating extremist politics, especially when other contenders like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis position themselves to the right of an already far-right Trump.
Such circumstances increase the possibility of a Trump victory in the 2024 elections.
